I n the fall of 2006, a BBC wire report speculated that global economic inequality and rapid advances in genetic engineering would some day combine to split mankind into two subspecies. "The descendants of the genetic upper classes would be tall, slim, healthy, attractive, intelligent, and creative and a far cry from the ‘underclass’ humans who would have evolved into dim-witted, ugly, squat goblin-like creatures." The BBC was careful to put its sci-fi scenario far into the future–100,000 years down the road. But whether or not such Wellsian predictions are realized, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: The day will come, perhaps even within a decade, when at least a subset of the human race will have the ability to control key aspects of its own evolution.

Although individuals with superhuman capacities have long been the domain of religious texts and science fiction, in the not-so-distant future, in the immortal words of the 1970s series The Six Million Dollar Man, we very well could make people "better, stronger, faster" than their unenhanced counterparts. But while the fictional Steve Austin was modified with high-tech electronics, tomorrow’s alterations will be biological–embryos modified with genes to lengthen life spans, enhance brain capacity and sense perception, increase endurance, and protect from deadly diseases.

The early stages of this technology already have been contentious; think of the fierce fight over stem cell use here in the United States. But these debates pale in comparison to the conflicts that will emerge as our capacity to alter our offspring’s genetic makeup grows exponentially. As different national approaches develop worldwide, they will become a source of instability, conflict, and even potentially armed intervention. Consider how a set of relatively small genetic changes to crops has created a flurry of trade tensions over genetically modified food. Being unable to sell American soybeans to Europe is one thing; the conflict over different approaches to changes to the human genome will be of an entirely different magnitude.

But despite this looming threat, the world remains dangerously unprepared for the international genetic "arms race" that could one day emerge, in which countries or even corporations compete to generate the most competitive offspring, even as they may recognize the dangers of following this path. I’m not talking about China or Russia genetically engineering a battalion of men capable of running 100 miles per hour and leaping tall buildings in a single bound. But what about a nation that has soldiers who need only an hour of sleep a night, have the eyesight of the best sharpshooter, or possess the endurance of Lance Armstrong? Would other countries be willing to wait 30 years to see what the repercussions are before starting down the same path themselves? Or would they feel forced to start immediately, setting off a genetic arms race? As soon as one country heads down this path, others will immediately set out to keep pace. Sound improbable? The nuclear arms race resulted in the irrational production of more than 30,000 nuclear warheads, and the world came dangerously close to nuclear war more than once. The genetic arms race could well turn out the same way, and this time, we might not be so lucky.

To maximize the benefits of advances in genetic technologies while minimizing their potential harms, the world community must develop global standards and a multilateral structure capable of both promoting advances in human genetic manipulation and preventing abuses. Call it a Genetic Heritage Safeguard Treaty. The science is moving extremely fast. The policy framework must now catch up.

Beyond Darwin

Just as advances in agriculture, sanitation, and health care have dramatically enhanced the length and quality of our lives, so too will advances in bioengineering help secure and enhance our future. Converging advances across fields as diverse as nanoscience, biotechnology, information technology, human fertility, gene therapy, molecular biology, and cognitive science ensure the arrival of revolutionary capabilities in human reproductive engineering. As this occurs, our species will develop the Promethean ability to manage its own evolutionary process to an extent that Charles Darwin never could have imagined. It will extend our lives, make us immune to diseases, and massively expand our memory capabilities and our sense perceptions–to name only a few possibilities. But as these capabilities spread quickly around the world, we could also see the loss of genetic diversity, the creation of "Frankenpeople," and even unknown outcomes of meddling with a system as infinitely complex as the human being.

To a very limited extent, some genetic manipulation is already happening. In today’s IVF clinics, pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) enables parents to choose the healthiest of their fertilized eggs, or select a gender, prior to re-implantation in the womb. In the near future, a relatively simple, additional step will allow doctors to insert an artificial chromosome with a targeted genetic manipulation–perhaps to eliminate the threat of Down Syndrome or even cancer–into such a fertilized egg.

As opposed to the somatic gene therapies in use today which target non-reproductive cells, so-called "germline" technology alters reproductive cells at the outset of the fertilization process, allowing genetic changes to be replicated in every ensuing cell and, potentially, permanently altering the gene pool of a given species. Germline engineering is not currently used on humans, but the process is being utilized widely in experiments with laboratory animals. Scientists disagree over the timeframe, but most generally agree that this technology will soon reach a stage where it could be used on humans. As UCLA Professor Gregory Stock has asserted, "The question is no longer whether we will manipulate embryos, but when, where, and how."

These capabilities hold the key to potentially massive enhancements to the human experience. In addition to enhancing cognitive abilities, endurance, and other traits, Princeton molecular biologist Lee Silver has suggested in his book Remaking Eden: How Cloning and Beyond Will Change the Human Family that humans might be able to expand our sensory perception by replicating genetic adaptation of animals. Imagine humans with the high- and low-frequency hearing of a bat or the acute smell of a dog.

Although spectacular debates will rage over the human genetic manipulation process, and although some states (and groups of states) will certainly continue to mandate tough restrictions on these capabilities, it will be extremely difficult to stop motivated groups from engaging in human genetic manipulations. On the contrary, competition will drive many to move forward aggressively, creating new fissures both within societies and between them.

Social Darwinists have long claimed that elites were smarter and had a greater natural capacity than the masses, a concept proven wrong as opportunity has democratized and societies have become more internally mobile. Taken to its extreme, this has led to the eugenics movement of the early part of the last century and, of course, the murderous ideology of Nazi Germany. But what if, in addition to having better nutrition, more exposure to ideas, and better schooling, the rich and privileged within a society also had genetic manipulations that actually made their brains function better? Princeton‘s Silver takes this argument a frightening step further, arguing, as the BBC report does, that societies will eventually bifurcate into genetically enhanced people and lower-capacity "naturals," two groups that will become "entirely separate species with no ability to cross breed."

In this context, would it begin to make sense for the enhanced people to assume leading roles in running institutions and governments, or making decisions on behalf of the less-enhanced populace? Uneven genetic enhancement would challenge our basic concepts of equality and place enormous or even existential strains on the democratic process. What is the life expectancy of a democracy where people are literally not born equal?

Among nations, two types of strains might emerge, and sooner than some think. First, enormous conflict could erupt between the states that ban or restrict new forms of human genetic manipulation and those that do not. If the current debate over genetically modified crops is anything to go by–where many Europeans see an existential threat, while Americans and Asians are generally far less concerned–the stress on international systems over genetically modified people would be monumental.